Does anyone see what I see in that commercial? To me, it seems like showing a couple of black teenagers and the possibility of getting drafted won't create any controversy (of course, this is a Sinclair broadcasting channel, which did everything it could save air a homemade porno of John Kerry to get Bush, the Anti-Christ, re-elected). Anyways, I was curious as to why this commercial would only show black teenagers; if they wanted to increase viewership, all they had to do was interview some white kids from the suburbs. Of course, this station might view this as not supporting the Bush, the Anti-Christ (hereinafter the A/C) and his little war; and we can't have that, can we?
So, how likely is a draft? Everytime I see "experts" on TV, they keep saying either we have the manpower and there is no crisis (i.e. Pentagon staff memebers or generals) or we have someone saying the forces are stretched thin to the breaking point (i.e. think-tank guy).
I think the truth lies somewhere between. For one, I know that recruiters are desperate. The fact is, no one wants this war except big-business because they're the only ones that stand to profit from this.
So why is the average Joe going to send his kids to fight for a war that everyone knows was premised on a lie? Eventually the military is going to have the problems that were rampant following Vietnam up until Desert Storm, which is poor quality troops. The qualifications for enlistment will fall, therefore, the quality of soldiers/sailors will drop. It used to be "go to jail, or go to the Marines." Watch the movie Buffalo Soldiers to get an idea of how the Army was before Desert Storm. It won't be long before we hit that again; if it isn't already happening.
Plus troop morale is low; very low. The worst thing you can do to a soldier is to send to a combat zone or to some shitty assignment and tell him "you'll be here for one year". Then near the end of the tour, tell him you're going to extend his tour. Imagine being told after one year of bombings, shootings, firefights with civilians getting killed that you're being extended involuntarily. Who is going to reenlist if Uncle Sam can't even keep his promise that your tour is one year?
Ultimately, unless we pull our troops very soon, there will be either a severe loosening of recruitment standards or a draft. Something has to give and soon. Unfortunately, if there is a draft, the rich will find a way around it by going to college and then Congress will simultaneously cut student financial aid in the same breath.
The only good thing about a draft is the severity of the action. A draft will no doubt prompt protests, unrest, civil disobedience, and public pressure on an administration that gets very unfavorable marks in foreign policy by the American public. This country is going down the wrong path right now and most people sense bad times are ahead (unless you are one of those for whom tax breaks "really" help; i.e. the upper 5%). It is unfortunate that something as extreme as a draft would have to take place to facilitate genuine change in society; but it would do just that. It takes a tragedy and outrage and sadly in the case of the war, probably more deaths to effectuate positive change.